politics•Mon, August 10, 2026•4 min read

Is the Reform UK Surge Stalling? A New Poll Signals Shift in British Politics

Nigel Farage's Reform UK has slipped to third place in a significant new opinion poll. The findings reflect a shift in momentum as Andy Burnham's Labour party gains ground.

A Shake-up in the Polling Landscape

The political landscape in Britain has seen a notable shift, with Reform UK falling behind both the Labour Party and the Conservatives in a recent survey conducted by Lord Ashcroft. For a party that has enjoyed consistent national momentum, this result marks a rare dip in support, placing Reform UK at 18 percent—its lowest level since the 2024 General Election.

While Reform figures have dismissed these findings as an outlier, citing other surveys that place them ahead of their rivals, the data highlights the intense volatility currently defining UK politics. As Prime Minister Andy Burnham enjoys an early 'bounce' in popularity, the battle for the center-right and progressive blocs continues to fluctuate.

The Impact of Shifting Support

The implications of this polling shift could be significant for the distribution of power in Westminster. According to projections tied to the Ashcroft survey, a drop to 18 percent could leave Reform UK with approximately 16 seats. In contrast, Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives appear to be stabilizing, potentially seeing a modest increase in their seat tally.

Labour support has climbed from 21% to 27% under Andy Burnham.
The Conservatives currently poll at 23%, slightly ahead of Reform UK.
Reform UK's support in the specific Ashcroft poll sits at 18%.
Analysts note that movement is primarily occurring between the Conservative-Reform and Labour-Green-Lib Dem blocs.

Despite concerns about the polling, Reform UK took a hit after it was revealed Mr Farage received a £5 million gift from the Thailand-based crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne.
— GB News

What Comes Next?

As the UK approaches future electoral challenges, the focus remains on whether these polling shifts represent a long-term trend or temporary volatility. While Reform UK has faced recent scrutiny regarding party funding and individual by-election dynamics in Clacton, the party maintains that their grassroots support remains robust. With the political climate remaining unpredictable, both voters and observers are waiting to see how the major parties navigate the economic and social policy demands of the coming year.

Key Takeaways

Reform UK fell to 18% in a new Lord Ashcroft poll, marking a decline from previous highs.
Labour, under PM Andy Burnham, has seen a steady rise in support to 27%.
Conservative support remains relatively stable at 23%, allowing them to edge ahead of Reform in this specific survey.
Political analysts suggest that voter movement is concentrated within two main ideological blocs: right-leaning and left-leaning.
Reform UK leadership has dismissed the Ashcroft poll, citing conflicting data from other survey providers.

FAQ

Where does Reform UK currently stand in the polls?

While Reform UK has led in several national polls, a recent Lord Ashcroft survey placed them at 18%, putting them in third place behind Labour and the Conservatives.

Who is the current Prime Minister of the UK?

Andy Burnham became Prime Minister last month.

Are all polls showing a decline for Reform UK?

No. Reform UK figures point to other recent surveys, such as one from YouGov, which show the party continuing to lead or perform strongly against Labour and the Conservatives.

What is driving the movement in current polling?

Analysts note that most voter movement is occurring between the Conservative-Reform bloc on the right, and the Labour-Green-Liberal Democrat bloc on the left.